KellyBench C

🔍 Introducing BackSearch. LLMs are increasingly asked to predict the future, but a good backtest requires a snapshot of the internet at a point in time. BackSearch allows LLMs to search the web as it was on a particular date. It’s great for: 🔮 Forecasting and prediction markets. 📈 Quantitative finance. 🌍 RL environments that simulate the world. 🥶 Freezing websearch for benchmark reproducibility We’re releasing a narrow slice of our index to begin with, focused on the news domain for 2026. Based on feedback we’ll open up more of our index in subsequent releases. 👇 Try BackSearch out with the link below.

— GenReasoning (@GenReasoning) Jul 24, 2026

OpenReward integration for FutureSim by @ShashwatGoel7 and team! 👇 Try it it out

— GenReasoning (@GenReasoning) Jun 26, 2026

We evaluated recent open models on KellyBench. Here is what we found: 🏆 GLM 5.2 is new open source SoTA, but still loses -30% on average over 5 runs. 📈 We estimate GLM 5.2 is 6+ months behind the frontier based on KellyBench and internal quant evaluations. (Note: we have not evaluated Fable) 🌗 Kimi K2.6 slightly improves on Kimi K2.5 but still struggles at -60% average RoI. 🐈 Recent Mistral models struggle, obtaining mean RoIs of -78% and -99% respectively. Leaderboard link and more graphs below.

— GenReasoning (@GenReasoning) Jun 18, 2026