LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting C

AI benchmark · Reasoning

Publisher
Paper Arxiv
Domains
Reasoning
Tier
C why
Snapshot

What is LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting?

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

Tier C

C

Niche: a handful of models scored, or built by an RL vendor.

How much stands behind a tier: usage, who backs it, a confirmed line from its own site or paper, and a clear read on X. High with three of the four, medium with two, low otherwise.

  • 6 models scored
  • in curated RL directories (1 pt)
How we got to tier C
  1. Adoption: 6 models scored. Tier C.
  2. Not yet read on X.
  3. In curated RL directories: 1 point, a floor of none.
  4. Not yet confirmed by a line from its own site or paper.

A clear view on X moves a tier one step up or down; most entries don't move. How tiers work.

Not on the map yet: no line from its own site or paper places it in a domain.

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